Solar X-rays:
Geomagnetic Field: |
From n3kl.org
I hope to give some helpful
information and advise for those wishing to observe the Northern
Lights in the UK.
I am no expert myself and still
learning I will try to put things across in laymen’s terms without
getting bogged down in the complex scientific explanations of them
but provide links for further information to the experts in this
field.
Once you have seen the Northern
Lights and watched in awe at such a natural light display I'm sure
you will be hooked like myself and many others.
The first indication I watch for
is sunspots that produce solar flares.
Link to Sunspot activity and flare forecast
http://spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk/
Link to Sunspot activity and flare forecast
http://spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk/
The stronger the flare the
better however they need to be Earth directed the flares are
classified from weakest to strongest A,B,C,M & X
Space Weather is good for the heads up.
http://www.spaceweather.com/
Space Weather is good for the heads up.
http://www.spaceweather.com/
It can take a few days for a
flare Coronal Mass Ejection that is Earth directed to arrive. Another
source of the Aurora can be an area of the Sun leaking a magnetic
filament
If a CME or Magnetic filament
strikes the Earths Atmosphere we have a chance of Aurora the strength
of an Aurora is measured in KP (1 to 9) The higher the number the
better and further South the display.
A KP4 storm would likely be
visible from the North Of Scotland A KP9 would be visible from the
Southern UK.
A chart showing were you would
expect to see Aurora in the UK against its KP strength is here.
Any activity from KP5 strength
is classified by NOAA as a geomagnetic storm.
Scale
G1 Minor = KP5
G2 Moderate = KP6
G3 Strong = KP7
G4 Severe = K8
G5 Extreme = KP9
A chart here shows the expected
effects on Earth and man-made equipment
Where can you find current
levels of activity.
On the above page looking at the
ACE Real-Time Solar wind dials is self explanatory ideally you are
wanting all the dials into the yellow or red. However this rarely
happens.
The NOAA Scales of Activity is a
good indicator of activity showing current storms and past 24hrs
storm levels however I along with others have found this can be
somewhat delayed.
The Auroral Map gives a visual
indicator and strength of Aurora activity overlaid on a map of the
Northern Hemisphere
Other Auroral Activity overlays
used regularly have links below
A good site for UK Activity is
UK Aurora Watch
The Geomagnetic Graph shows live
data over the UK and is a great indicator of potential Aurora
activity the site also covers areas suitable for photographing the
Aurora and explanations for the live data links.
Another European site I find
useful is
Solar Influences Data Center
Aurora like the weather can be
unpredictable displays can range from an arc of light, lighter than
the surrounding dark sky to brilliant green and red beams and
pulsating colours in the sky.
It is worth noting if you see
the lighter coloured arc it is worth photographing and checking the
results as it may show up green auroral light and it may be a growing
storm as cameras are able to detect the auroral colours before the
naked eye. Don't forget the darker the place you take observations
the better you will see any display.
The
best way to get up to date information is to be a member of forums
such as Ukweatherworld who have a forum for Aurora watches where
members post alerts and information photographs etc.
Twitter
and Facebook are also invaluable for live information searching
Aurora or #aurorauk (Twitter)
If you are interested in
learning more about space weather I can highly recommend the
following site which is free to join and provides a basic
understanding a short test and certificate if you pass.
Photography
I use a Pentax DSLR,Tripod.
The settings I tend to use are
an ISO 3200 f3.5 18mm 10 – 15 seconds on bulb settings with a
remote.
Further Links
Quiet to active (K Dourbes = 4) geomagnetic levels are possible on October 22 and 23 due to the effects of a weak coronal hole high speed stream.
ReplyDeletehttp://sidc.oma.be/index.php3
Worth keeping an eye on although not much expected.
ReplyDeletePRESTO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM Sun Nov 11 2012, 1249 UT
A C2 flare occurred on Nov. 10 in NOAA AR 1608. It was associated with an EUV coronal wave and a CME. As new data came in, it appears that part of this CME might arrive at Earth by mid-day on Nov. 13th. Considering the halo CME of Nov. 9, which was expected at Earth by the end of Nov. 13, the combined effect of these two events could produce active conditions on that day.
http://sidc.oma.be/index.php
http://www.gi.alaska.edu/AuroraForecast/Europe/2012/12/07 Forecast KP4 levels for the 07/12/2012 which should be visible from Aberdeen Northwards.
ReplyDeleteNFO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM 07 Dec 2012, 1147UT
Four sunspot groups were reported by Catania today and non of them was active. The solar activity is very low with no C-class flares detected during last two days. Only isolated C-class flares are possible from the slowly decaying sunspot group 37 (NOAA AR 1623). The Earth is still inside a slow solar wind flow with the speed of about 320 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field is stable with the magnitude of about 4 nT. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet.The arrival of a CME-driven shock associated with the partial-halo CME from December 5 is expected late today or early on December 8, and it might result in active geomagnetic conditions.
Tonight and early hours of Saturday seem the best chance for any sitings this weekend with things being so quiet on this front. Worth keeping an eye on the gauges bearing in mine the last cme forecast either passed us by or was none geo effective.
http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3